The need for action is pressing in order to feed the expanding human population, expected to increase by almost one billion people per decade for the next three decades at least. Much of this increase will occur in developing countries in the low-latitude regions of the world. To meet the associated food demand, crop yields will need to increase, consistently, by over 2% every year through this period. Most research on agriculture and climate change has focused on potential impacts on regional and global food production, yet few studies have considered how global warming may affect food security. Food security has been defined as access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life. (World Bank, 1986). The World Food Summit, convened in 1996 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in Rome, highlighted the basic right of all people to an adequate diet and the need for concerted action among all countries to achieve this goal in a sustainable manner (FAO, 1996). The overall world production changes mask a disparity in response to climate change between developed and developing countries. The largest negative changes are predicted to take place in developing regions, although the extent of decreased production varies greatly from country to country, depending on the specific nature and degree of the local change in climate. The welfare effects of climate change on individual countries will not only depend upon changes in domestic yields, but also on changes in world prices, and the country's relative strength as an exporter and importer. Cereal-price increases resulting from climate-induced reductions in yield are estimated to range between 24 and 145%. The combination of production declines in developing countries and increases in prices due to climate change would increase the number of people at risk of hunger. Furthermore, the results show that adaptation strategies do little to reduce these disparate effects.
