The current state of the economy in the United States is a feeble one, unable to consistently keep its head above water. While the economy is not currently in a recession, we may eventually fall victim to the first recession we've had in nearly ten years. Making a prediction on what exactly will happen to the US economy in the future will be extremely difficult. While there is much debate, many economists do not agree on what will become of the economy. Some feel that we will begin a recession over the next year, and some feel that there is significant policy implementation that will allow us to dodge a recession and regain our economic strength. There are many factors that make up the US economy. The means in which I will discuss the overall growth and current status of the economy is by analyzing the Gross Domestic Product, and discuss the factors that cause it to rise and fall. The GDP is the total aggregate income of the United States. It is comprised of consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. The GDP in the fourth quarter of 2000 grew at a 1.1% annual rate, the lowest since a 0.8% increase in the second quarter of 1995. The below par performance in GDP is due to those factors that comprise the GDP. The most important of which is consumption. Consumption in the United States has been less than expected mainly due to low consumer confidence. Consumer confidence has hit a 10 year low with an index of 106.8 as reported by Alan Greenspan. In the past 2 months the index number has plummeted nearly 22 points, the biggest decrease since the 1990 -1991 recession. The reason for this recent drop in consumer confidence is due to several key factors. One factor is the poor performance of the stock market. The Dow Jones is down from its peak that was hit last year, but has now rebounded slightly. The Nasdaq took a dive with the decrease in the prices of tech stocks. The Nasdaq has fallen nearly 56% from its peak in March of 2000.
