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The forecasted costs of implementing the Accord run the gamut from minimal and relatively un-noticeable to ruinous and economically unsustainable. A study conducted for the Liberal government says that under the Kyoto Protocol, the economy will grow by about 16% by 2010, compared to 18% under a "business-as-usual" scenario. Stated otherwise, the economy will produce 1.26 million new jobs with Kyoto compared to 1.32 million with the status quo, by 2010 (1). This study concludes that the economic costs would be negligible and spread over the entire country, affecting all economic sectors relatively equally. The costs of implementing the accord will stem from the government's need to subsidize and give generous tax breaks to corporations in the hopes of stimulating research and development, and application of environmentally friendly capital resources and business practices. Tax breaks of as much as $1000 are also expected for individuals who renovate homes to lower heating and cooling costs, the government also aims to retrofit 20% of Canada's houses by 2012 and to make all new homes conform to federal efficiency standards by 2010. These are but some of the major outflows the government will be faced with when implementing the Protocol. Added to that are the social costs of potentially great numbers of structurally un-employed workers as a result of polluting or obsolete corporations going under when faced with the economic pressures of investing in new forms of environmentally friendly capital.
The good news for those who support Canada's ratification of Kyoto is that the Canadian government claims to already have plans that would alleviate these costs, in the form of "sinks" and by earning and selling credits to other signatories, and by taxing polluting enterprises on amount of GHG"s emitted. So confident is Ottawa that it has recently announced that it will cap the amount that businesses will have to pay to meet Kyoto targets.
