This report is aimed to develop forecasting models from one of a case study data set that is given in an assignment outline. The report will conduct on the Migration data set: Short-term Movement, Resident Departures-Intended Length Stay and Main Reason for Business. This report includes the process of developing the models and forecasting for the coming 12 months. The models will be used for calculating are a nave model, a moving average model and measure of the errors in order to select the best-fit model. The report also provides relevant graphs and tables which support a clear vision. The report starts with describing the data set series and provides the process of forecasting. At the end, it provides a highlight of findings, results and recommendations. .
2. FORECASTING.
2.1 Plot the Data.
The actual data set is acquired from the ABS website (http:www.abs.gov.au). This data is a migration data set - Oversea Arrivals and Departures, Australia Section, Table 6: Short-Term Movement, Resident Departures-Intended Length Stay and Main Reason for Business. The data starts from January 1991 to June 2003. The data set is shown in the graph below.
Figure 2.1.1.
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According to the graph, it is very clear to see that the number of Australia resident departures for business appears to be increasing since 1991. It shows that the residents appear to leave their country being weakest during December and strongest during March. The assumption of this series would be the residents usually go back to their homeland for Christmas Eve and New Year Day. After holiday, people would start to go back to work which it appears a high rate of resident departures starting from February and March. Therefore, this data series has a strong seasonal component. .
However, it can be seen quite clearly that there is a significant weakest during April 2003. This is because there were irregular events, Iraq War and SARS happened in the beginning of this year.
Types of forecasting Forecasting various methods are divided in two major categories, the subjective and the objective, which both are presented in Exhibit 1. ... Forecast estimates obtained directly 1. ... Useful for new-product forecasting intensive Sales force composite 1. ... Produces aggregate forecasts opinion 2. ... Disperses responsibility for the forecast top people 4. ...
Art and Science of Forecasting Many Remanufacturers are just beginning to discover the need for accurate forecasts to base their production lifecycle planning. ... These RF tags are part of the plan for product lifecycle forecasting. ... Your company's goals are tied to the forecast. ... Revenue projection by demand forecast is an inexact science. ... Understanding your forecast error and measuring is a key activity. ...
In writing this essay, I was more amazed with the forecasting of weather than I was of actual tornadoes. ... One question that I asked myself was "when was the first weather forecasting ever done?"... Someone might ask, "If forecasters have so much information on a particular area; how could they predict a flawed forecast?" ... The next breakthrough in forecasting was the satellite. ... However T.I.R.O.S 1 was not specifically built for forecasting but rather to study clouds. ...
The question posed here is if a person suffers a loss due to an inaccurate weather forecast, should the forecasting agency or individual be held legally responsible? ... Another reason meteorologists in the public sector should not be legally liable for their forecasts is that a weather forecast is made up of opinions and educated guesses. ... The result was a skewed marine forecast from the forecasting office in Hyannis. ... Weather forecasters in the public sector should not be held legally responsible for their forecasts when they are incorrect. So much information goes into a foreca...
"Building Alliance With Clients: Keys to Success in Forecasting" The article "Building Alliance With Clients: Keys to Success in Forecasting," in the Winter 2002-03 issue of The Journal of Business Forecasting, is about creating an alliance with clients before, during, and after forecasts to create a better relationship between clients and forecasters to avoid any problems that could potentially happen. ... In doing this, forecasters must build alliances. ... It is looked at as a word that creates a line between the client and forecaster and gives the impression that the forecaster does not ...
Forecasting The article "Is Forecasting a Waste of Time?" ... The author points out that many companies undergo forecasting activities that fail to add value to the overall forecast. ... The author goes on to describe a superior form of forecasting, the future value added approach. The approach measures the change in forecasting accuracy due to an activity in the forecasting process. ... The forecast value added approach is aimed at just that: eliminating wasteful steps from the process of sales forecasting. ...
Market stimulation forecast. 4. ... Long term forecasts can be expected to report expected financials for 1-3 years into the route opening. Longer forecasts can be produced however more unknowns enter the equation resulting in more possibilities for error. ... Market share cannibalism is an issue that is very difficult to account for in such profit forecasts. ... With numerous steps and plenty of unknown variables forecasting the success of a new proposed route is tricky business and airlines must ensure they account for every detail possible if the routes yield is to accurately forecast....
Forecasters are hoping that a slow U.S. economy, and a stronger yen point to a weaker surplus in the months ahead. Although this problem is still occurring it shows in monthly forecasts that since a peak high in July, forecasts are showing a declining trend. ... Forecasters are hoping that as winter sets in, the pressure on policy makers will help resolve this issue of economic recession. It also states that in October, forecasters showed signs of economic recovery due to inflation. ...
