In their attempt to gain support for ratification of the newly written constitution, Federalists in 1787 took to publicly campaigning in order to sway public opinion. The Federalists realized the importance of public opinion. Since then, public opinion has played an important role in national politics. According to the definition provided by political scientist V.O. Key Jr., every government, democratic or otherwise, has to pay attention to public opinion. Due to the importance of public opinion, survey research has grown into a huge industry. A great deal of money and time is put into opinion polling. Though it plays an important role in politics, however, survey research may not always be 100 percent accurate. To illustrate this point, and to explain why there may be inaccuracies, I conducted a small survey much like a poll conducted by CNN, USA Today, and Gallup. The purpose of my survey was to compare my findings with that of the national findings, and to analyze the results of the different polls. .
On October 5-6, 2001, CNN, USA Today, and Gallup conducted a nationwide poll that asked respondents, "If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?" Their results were as follows:.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. October 5-6, 2001. N=819 adults nationwide. Margin of Error ± 4.
"If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?".
Bush Democrat Other Not Sure .
% % % % .
10/01 54 29 2 15 .
Nearly one month after this poll was taken, I conducted a similar poll which asked, "If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush, for the Democratic Party's candidate, other, or not sure?" My results were as follows:.
My Poll. November 3, 2001. N=15 adults.