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Rwanda - The State Of The Nation

 

7bn disbursed. Although assistance levels are falling, on a per capita basis they remain among the highest in Africa. The EU, World Bank, IMF, US and UK are the major donors. Total external foreign debt is estimated at US$1.2bn, and servicing it remains a considerable drain despite debt relief. In 2001, the total scheduled debt service was said to be $60,6 million. Oxfam says, however, that on the basis of optimistic export growth projections of the IMF and World Bank, conventional debt rescheduling will leave Rwanda with a debt-export ratio of 360% in 2003, and a debt-service ratio of 54%. Even a conservative calculation of the ratio at 33% masks a very high dependence for export earnings on a few crops, which are unstable in price and output, and the high requirement for budgetary expenditures. Along with high military expenditure (37% of the 1997 budget) and tight primary budget deficit targets, this leaves little scope to use domestic resources for the social sectors (29% of recurrent expenditure). Incidentally, debt sustainability under HIPC initiative is defined between a band of 200-250% for debt to exports ratio, and 20-25% for debt service to exports ratio). Obviously, debt-servicing at current levels carries high social costs. Child mortality, literacy and nutritional indicators in Rwanda are extremely poor, and have deteriorated significantly since 1992. The health of Rwandans has suffered dramatically. There are only 1.65 hospital beds for every 1000 people. Maternal mortality has almost quadrupled since 1990, and severe wasting of children has increased more than sevenfold. The genocide and its aftermath eroded the government's revenue base and severely restricted its capacity to deliver basic services. In 2002, the United Nations Development Program ranked Rwanda 174th out of 175 countries, using a composite of welfare indicators in its human-development index.


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